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Elizabeth Wehler ’09 (Gettysburg, Pa.), a double major in mathematics and economics & business, researched legislative forecasting models as an EXCEL Scholar with Mark Crain, William E. Simon Professor of Political Economy and chair of policy studies.
Predicting the future is a very powerful tool in economics. Unlike with fortunetellers, however, crystal balls and nightly visions are unhelpful in this regard. For economists, forecasting models provide one of the closest means to achieving this goal.
This past summer, I worked with Professor W. Mark Crain, the William E. Simon Professor of Political Economy, crafting models to predict whether or not legislation will become enacted in 10 different American states. This project was an extension of his previous research which attempted to forecast the outcomes of bills in the U.S. House and Senate. Using bill outcome data for the 2005 and 2007 sessions in each state, I used the 2005 data set to construct a mathematical equation to predict the probability of a bill being enacted. I also analyzed characteristics of the legislation included, which party proposed the legislation, what the topic of the legislation was, and if the individual who proposed the bill was a leader in his/her respective house. I was then able to test my model to see if I could have predicted the 2007 outcome accurately.
This type of predictive model-building is extremely valuable for many organizations outside the Lafayette community. Interest groups and corporations continuously watch the bills members of Congress propose, especially on a state-by-state basis. These bills have the potential to benefit or harm their endeavors so companies or interest groups need to figure out when they should employ lobbyists to represent their opinion. But if a bill never has the potential to pass a state Congress, why should these groups waste their money lobbying? Instead, predictive legislative models give concerned citizens a tool to assess the amount of time they should invest in the legislative process, given a specific bill. Granted, these models should not be treated as the absolute truth, but merely as guidance and information for interested parties.
As a senior majoring in economics and business and mathematics, I am considering attending graduate school for economics or pursuing a job in data analysis. This research project gave me a hands-on opportunity to work on my econometrics skills, as well as to exercise creativity in model-building. Whichever direction I choose to pursue after graduation, my summer EXCEL project has given me a leg-up and has allowed me to develop tools that will be valuable for my future endeavors.
Political economy is a narrow academic area, which combines political science with the tools of economics. Working with Professor Crain was an extremely rewarding opportunity. His expertise in the theory of political forecasting models, as well as his prior research, provided a strong basis for me to utilize creativity and analysis. I am continuing to work on this project for my senior honors thesis with Professor Crain, and I look forward to illustrating my final results by next spring.